Burma ‘on the brink of a Humanitarian Crisis’; Civil War Possible

Speakers at the “Burma’s Crisis: Ways Forward” seminar agreed that Myanmar is on the brink of a humanitarian crisis and that more outside pressure is needed to stop the junta’s on-going brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protestors. The seminar was attended by university students, academics, journalists, NGO activists, a European Union political councillor and foreign diplomats from several countries such as the United Kingdom, Poland, New Zealand and Australia.

The international community, including the ASEAN and Thailand, needs to put more intense and sustained pressure on Burma’s military government to stop attacking its unarmed civilians, including monks and to start serious negotiations with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. This view was shared by the five speakers at the seminar held by the Bangkok-based Institute of Security and International Studies at the Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science on 15 October 2007. Their views echoed the calls of many Burmese protestors in Singapore and Thailand who wish to see the ASEAN, the United Nations and the international community take a more decisive action to resolve the crisis in Myanmar.

More than 3,000 have been arrested in the recent anti-junta protests and at least one hundred others, including monks, are believed to have been killed in the September uprising. While it was not the first time that monks were arrested and tortured in Burma, the fact that this happened on the national scale has set off the time bombs in the minds of many Buddhists, prompting them to join anti-junta protests. The doubling of gasoline prices has also driven more people to go against the junta, now that their economic survival is at stake.

Thailand will likely face serious problems if Burma’s crisis is not resolved soon, said Mr. Kraisak Choonhavan, former chairman of the Thai Senate Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs. He said already there are five million Burmese immigrants, refugees and exiles living in Thailand. More Burmese people will sneak into Thailand if a civil war breaks outs. Some Thai border provinces such as Tak, Phangha and Mae Hongson already have more Burmese than Thais.

Mr. Zaw Oo, a Chiang Mai University lecturer and one of the speakers at the seminar, agreed with Mr. Kraisak. Burma is being pounded with problems from all sides. Within the army itself, there has been more than 10,000 deserters and the number is growing, he said. The armed ethnic groups refused to lay down arms and integrate with the rest of Burma, which will make it more difficult for the junta to complete its so-called 7-Step Roadmap to Democracy. The economy is crumbling and the people are suffering from the sudden doubling in gasoline prices that has led to increases of staples and other essentials. “Burma is on the brink of a humanitarian crisis and state failure,” Mr. Zaw Oo said. “When that actually happens, many more Burmese people will come to Thailand, a great country of compassion and hospitality.”

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